Summary
Arsenal do not arrive at this second leg carrying the comfort of a lead, but they do bring back to London the one thing that mattered most in Germany: control of the tie. After the 1-1 draw in Leverkusen, the Champions League last-16 matchup now shifts to the Emirates with everything still open, except for one detail that heavily favors the Gunners — home has been a serious weapon for Mikel Arteta’s side this season.
The first leg left Arsenal with mixed feelings. Kai Havertz came off the bench to score a late penalty against his former club and rescue the draw after Robert Andrich had put Leverkusen ahead early in the second half. But the match also showed that Arsenal were far from dominant. Opta’s post-match data from the first leg says the Premier League side managed only two shots on target all night, which is why the return in North London still carries real tension despite the advantage of playing at home.
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There is still a strong case for Arsenal, and it starts with what they have become at the Emirates. UEFA’s official preview says Arsenal have suffered only one home defeat all season, won all four of their Champions League home games in the league phase, and lost only one of their last 22 UEFA matches in their own stadium. UEFA’s second-leg stat pack adds another layer: the Gunners have scored three or more goals in six of their last nine Champions League home matches. That is the kind of trend that turns a level tie into a favorable one.
Leverkusen, however, are not turning up in London to play the role of supporting cast. UEFA’s round-of-16 numbers show the Bundesliga side have won four of their five previous two-legged ties against English teams and have lost only one of their last eight UEFA matches against English opposition. They also arrive with proof that Arsenal can be made uncomfortable. In the first leg, Leverkusen were organized, physical and dangerous on dead balls, and that is exactly the kind of profile that can make a knockout match feel long for a favorite.
Arsenal have their own strong historical angle. UEFA notes they won all eight league-phase matches under the new format and are trying to reach the Champions League quarter-finals for the third straight time. There are also a few useful player storylines for a service piece like this one: Gabriel Martinelli has scored in Arsenal’s previous four Champions League home matches this season, while Havertz has scored in five of his last six games in the competition. If Arsenal get through, the quarter-final path would send them into a tie against Sporting CP or Bodø/Glimt.
Where to watch Arsenal vs Bayer Leverkusen live
For viewers in the United States, Arsenal vs Bayer Leverkusen kicks off at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT on Tuesday, March 17. Paramount+ lists Bayer Leverkusen at Arsenal among Tuesday’s live Champions League streams, while UEFA’s broadcast-partner page lists Paramount+, TUDN and DAZN among the competition’s official U.S. rights holders. AS USA’s daily watch guide also lists Paramount+ and ViX for this specific match. In Canada, UEFA lists DAZN as the official Champions League broadcaster.
Prediction, betting picks and odds
The safest read is still Arsenal to qualify. Opta’s supercomputer gives Arsenal a 79% chance of reaching the quarter-finals and a 69.8% chance of winning the second leg in regulation. CBS Sports lists Arsenal at -350 on the moneyline, with the draw at +450 and Leverkusen at +850, while Action Network listed Arsenal around -334 with the total at 2.5 goals. All of that points in the same direction: Arsenal remain the clear favorite, especially over the full tie rather than just the 90 minutes.
The strongest betting angle is Arsenal to advance. The more aggressive play is Arsenal to win in 90 minutes, backed by their home numbers in Europe and Leverkusen’s poor round-of-16 history. A player pick that makes sense is Kai Havertz anytime scorer, given his goal in the first leg and UEFA’s note that he has scored in five of his last six Champions League appearances. For readers chasing a higher-risk match script, Arsenal win and over 1.5 total goals fits the broader data better than a cagey, scoreless type of finish. That is a reasoned read from the current form, odds and knockout context, not a guarantee.
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